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Modeling Organizational Decision Making inMilitary Command ControlDr Dennis K LeedomScience Advisor US Army III CorpsFort Hood Texas.
1 Outline III Corps battle management organizational structure2 Summarize Army frustration with measuring the ROI of digitization3 Review of C2 decision modeling paradigms4 The multi tiered decision process within a battle staff5 Coping with situational ignorance the need for sensemaking.
6 System performance measurement the need for a paradigm shift7 Questions Discussion III Corps Battle ManagementOrganizational Structure C2 Relationships for a Corps.
III Corps Combat PowerOLD IRONSIDESOF ALL U S Armored Cavalry Regiment2 Heavy Divisions.
2 Heavy BrigadesOVER 25 000 Air Defense BrigadeCOMBAT VEHICLES Corps ArtilleryAND AIRCRAFT COSCOMVarious Corps Support Units.
III Corps Command PostsMonitor and control III Corps close operationsSynchronize III Corps combat CS CSS operationsAllocate III Corps resourcesMonitor and control III Corps deep operations.
MAIN CP Plan future III Corps operationsMonitor and control III Corps Sustainment operationsREAR CP Force protection operations Movement operations.
Terrain management operations C2 operationsSANCTUARY CPMonitor and control III Corps deployment operations III Corps Main CP.
HQ317 HQ318 HQ319 150 DECISION MAKERS Field Grade Offer Senior NCO IIIX CHEM IOICHQ332 HQ332 8460620 9160768.
303MI SPIRIT MDCI 303MI A400AF171 303MIAF 94L421 B512B53 54 30 31 III Corps Tactical CP.
40 50 DECISION MAKERS Field Grade Offer Senior NCO G6 G6 GeneratorsAudio Visual Entranc ADE Tactical CP Hub.
FSE G3 GCCSASAS G2 G3 MCS Army Frustration WithMeasuring ROI For Digitization Facilitating Battle Command.
The Technology Component Force XXI Battle Maneuver ControlCommand Brigade SystemTopographicSupport System.
SINCGARS NTDRGCCS A ASASGlobal Command All Sourceand Control AnalysisSystem Army System.
CSSCS TOCs TAISCombat Service WIN T SATCOM TacticalSupport AirspaceControl IntegrationSystem ISYSCON System.
FAADC2 AFATDSForward Area Air Advanced FieldDefense Command Artillery Tacticaland Control Data System Facilitating CA Planning.
Hazard Prediction and Assessment CapabilityExample Civil impact of Mt Vesuvius eruptionNighttime IlluminationTerrain SlopePopulation Coefficient.
Developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratories Realizing the Full Potentialof C3I Technology Digital training is more than individual training and it is additive in nature It is also.
essential to train individual skills within the context of a network with the friction ofthe field environment Leaders must understand networks what affects a network ssuccessful functioning and be trained in the integration of digital functionality acrossall the BFAs Until leaders can understand how to leverage the full integration of ArmyTactical Command and Control Systems ATCCS we will NOT have achieved the full.
warfighting potential of digital technology COL Robert Cone Cdr 2BCTIII Corps Digital Training Seminar 3 May 2001Individual Operator MCSFBCB2 Integrated Battle Command.
Knobology Team Performance TAIS Battle StaffAFATDS Organization TrainingPM DevelopedNew Equipment Training.
The Measurement Problem The major challenge is that Capitol Hill doesn t understand the powerof digitization nor the additive costs associated with it until we have quantifiable results of the digital revolution it ishard to show goodness of results .
Summary Issues III Corps Digital Training Seminar 3 May 2001 Productivity Paradox Research on IT and productivity has been disappointing not only because ithas exacerbated apprehension about the ultimate value of billions of dollars.
of IT investment but also because it has raised frustrating concerns with themeasures and methods commonly used for productivity assessment However only by understanding the causes of the productivity paradox we can learnhow to identify and remove the obstacles to higher productivity growth The Productivity Paradox of Information Technology Review Assessment.
Erik Brynjolfsson Communications of the ACM 1993 Paradox ExplanationsSERVICE VS MANUFACTURING IT investments have typically contributed more inmanufacturing rather than service industriesDEGREE OF CENTRALIZATION IT investments have typically contributed more in.
decentralized versus centralized organizationsDEFINITION OF PERFORMANCE Organizational inputs and outputs are not beingproperly defined hard to measure quality increasesTIME LAG OF PAYOFF Time lags between initial IT investment andproductivity increases are often 5 years.
DECISION MAKER INERTIA Decision makers have failed to adapt their decisionmaking processes to the new technologyCOST OF REENGINEERING Successful IT investments have typically beenaccompanied by 10x investments in intangibles Need for a Paradigm Shift.
The introduction of computers into organizations has been predicated on theassumption that they would become a key instrument in improvingorganizational problem solving Organizational actors analyze data to solve well structured problems Organizational actors employ decision theoretic choice making methods of analysis.
Computers provide organizational actors with formal decision models and fixed pipelines ofThis view is in contrast to a more active interpretive sensemaking image oforganizational decision making Organizational actors are interpreters and enactors of a stream of events Information technology should support human inquiry as a subjective sensemaking process.
Information technology must adapt to the needs of today s pluralistic context of organizationsand their turbulent information environmentsInformation Technology and Organizational Change in Turbulent Environments Exploring Emergent Technology Designs for SensemakingSession 195 Ram Tenkasi Chair.
Academy of Management Chicago 1999 Conference Facilitating Battle Command The Organizational Component Commander s Intent andCommander Concept of Operation.
Knowledge FutureState StateLeadershipForce of WillVisualize Project.
Present FutureMETT TC METT TCStaff ENABLEENABLE ENABLEKnowledge Battle Staff Teamwork.
and Synchronization Decision Modeling Paradigms Military Decision Making Process Circa 1977 OBSERVE DECIDE.
in order to win we should operate at a faster tempo or rhythmthan our adversaries or better yet get inside the adversary sObservation Orientation Decisi... time cycle or loop Patterns of ConflictCOL John R Boyd.
Military Decision Making Process Circa 1997 Unit Mission UTODevelop RefineTraditional Focus on Defining Synchronized CREATE INFORMATION.
Develop BLUE I O DISPARITYa Formal Planning Process Articulate PlanCdr s IntentEXECUTION DECISIONDevelop Refine.
Synchronized CYCLEDevelop Fire SupportCCIRs PlanDevelop RefineReplanning.
SynchronizedSynchronize Mobility R S Mgmt COMMON SITUATIONArticulate CountermobilityAWARENESS Cdr s Guidance Plan SET CONDITIONS FOR.
DECISIVE ENGAGEMENTTimely RED Develop Refine Monitor Develop AdjustComplete Picture with SynchronizedADA Plan Deep Battle Current.
Robust IPB HV Targets Decision Pts SituationDevelop OPORDDevelop Refine Monitor Relevant Boundaries.
Division Higher Synchronized AdjustLogistics Close BattleR S Reports PictureANTICIPATORY Support PlanDevelop SYNCHRONIZED MANEUVER.
Timely BLUE FIRESPicture withReadiness Predict Rearming Select Decision Pts Refueling Develop ExpandBLUE Unit Requirements Synchronization Plan Branch.
Status Report Matrix COAs with Key EventsBranches Sequels Issue OPORDAUTOMATED MISSION Issue FRAGO.
PLANNING WARGAMING REHEARSAL Execution Decision Cycle Circa 1998 Principles of War.
Mission End State Tasks Maintain Mental Images ModifyConcept of OperationSelect COA OptionApprove Plan FRAGOCues Expectancies .
and IndicatorsAdjust Monitoring Adjust PlanFramework Criteria Current Plan and COA Still RelevantOperation on Track Toward Desired End StateContinue Situation Monitoring Monitor Progress.
Reconcile Alternative PerspectivesIntrospectively Examine Decision ProcessCan Select ExistingManage Situation Branch or Sequel Situation Clear .
Uncertainty Coping Strategies YesYes Time for Deliberation Collect Information Reduce Status Quo Attractive Refine Problem Space Uncertainty Yes NoPlan Still Relevant .
Rely on Doctrine TTPs Assumption Based How Many Options To Consider Uncertain NoConstruct What If Model Reasoning Yes But Needs AdjustmentTake Shaping Action to Only 1Adjust Problem Space Take Preemptive or Time for Deliberation Compatibility.
or Reduce Risk Mental SimulationDevelop Contingency PlansShaping Action No Test Explanatory ReasoningRely on Intuition Needs Only Minor Adjustment Ignore Uncertainty .
or ExperienceIntuitive Risk Taking Yes Feature MatchingEffectiveness AcceptabilityTake Calculated RisksMental Simulation Test Flexibility.
Recognition Primed Explanatory ReasoningEvaluate Against Use Images toWill It Work Current Plan EvaluateSlight Will It Work Generate.
Modification No New Option Multi Tiered Decision ProcessWithin the Battle Staff Multi Tiered Decision Making ProcessCOMMANDER .
TIER 1 Or designatedsenior decision makerTIER 2 PRINCIPAL STAFFSUPPORTING STAFF SECTIONS Cognitive Responsibilities.
Creativity oriented create vision and set goals in response to ill defined problems Action oriented enact environment to maintain operational advantage reduceuncertainty and shape the reality of the battlefield Employ paradigms and analogies to focus staff attention Maintain overall situation awareness and scan for decision making opportunities.
Establish overall battle rhythm and set information priorities Adjudicate conflicts between units and or battlefield functional areas Select courses of action and approve operational adjustments as required Adaptation oriented plan and improvise specific battlefield functionsADE within rational bounds set by commander.
PRINCIPAL STAFF CHEM Monitor functional area of responsibility project future eventsADVISORS ENG Compare operational progress with current plans and constraintsG2 Provide commander with experience based assessments Identify emerging problems and areas of potential exploitation.
G3 ALO Shape articulate windows of decision making opportunityFSE Articulate courses of action and or recommend adjustments Coordinate with other principal staff advisors to insure commonunderstanding and synchronization of functional areas Task oriented perform specific analytic or information gathering tasks.
with little or no discretion Build integrated picture for specific area of responsibility Track battle and conduct specified operational analyses Develop course of action details and test for suitability and feasibility Build transmit operational plans orders FRAGOs to subordinate units.
SUPPORTING STAFF SECTIONS Coordinate with other staff sections headquarters to insureconsistency of information databases Decision EventDECISION RESPONSE RESPONSEFRAMING DEVELOPMENT EVALUATION.
What aspect of the operation How much is known and What criteria should be used toneeds attention understood about the situation judge suitability of responses What is at stake What assumptions can be made Desired effect Which paradigms analogies are regarding areas of ignorance Timeliness appropriate to apply Does the situation suggest an Which operational constraints are.
Which operational variables need obvious response relevant for selecting a response to be considered Should can more than one Effect threshold Which operational variables can response option be developed Timeliness Outline Outline III Corps battle management organizational structure Summarize Army frustration with measuring the ROI of digitization Review of C2 decision modeling paradigms The multi-tiered decision process within a battle staff Coping with situational ignorance: the need for sensemaking System performance measurement: the need for a ...

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